{"id":4619,"date":"2023-08-19T14:31:54","date_gmt":"2023-08-19T14:31:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/outsiderland.com\/danahilliot\/?p=4619"},"modified":"2024-01-23T09:58:29","modified_gmt":"2024-01-23T09:58:29","slug":"amoc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/outsiderland.com\/danahilliot\/amoc\/","title":{"rendered":"AMOC"},"content":{"rendered":"
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La publication concernant l’effondrement possible de l’AMOC \u00ab\u00a0entre 2025 et 2095, avec une estimation centrale de 2057\u00a0\u00bb \u00ab\u00a0si une r\u00e9duction drastique et rapide des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre n\u2019advient pas\u00a0\u00bb (et elle n’adviendra pas, donc..) secoue \u00e9videmment la communaut\u00e9 des climatologues. Pour ceux qui ont le niveau en sciences physiques et statistiques (pas moi, tr\u00e8s loin de l\u00e0) l’acc\u00e8s au texte est libre : Ditlevsen, P., Ditlevsen, S. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nat Commun 14, 4254 (2023)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Une interview des auteurs ici dans The Conversation<\/a> (\u00e9dition fran\u00e7aise) :<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Nous sommes confront\u00e9s \u00e0 un refroidissement de l\u2019AMOC, avec en arri\u00e8re-plan un r\u00e9chauffement du climat. C\u2019est un peu comme si nous conduisions une voiture et que nous appuyions en m\u00eame temps sur la p\u00e9dale de vitesse et sur la p\u00e9dale de frein.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 identifi\u00e9, et consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un des \u00ab\u00a0tipping point\u00a0\u00bb du d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique par le GIEC en 2021, mais en l’absence d’\u00e9tude approfondie, le chapitre \u00e9voquait une \u00e9ch\u00e9ance \u00e0 plus d’un si\u00e8cle. Avec cette \u00e9tude, il s’agirait maintenant d’un futur beaucoup moins lointain.<\/p>\n

L’\u00e9tude est en d\u00e9bat, et n’ayant absolument aucune comp\u00e9tence pour en penser quoi que ce soit sur le plan scientifique, je me contenterai ici d’\u00e9voquer deux ou trois pens\u00e9es que les r\u00e9sultats (tr\u00e8s prudemment \u00e9nonc\u00e9s) me sugg\u00e8rent.<\/p>\n

1. L’hypoth\u00e8se d’un refroidissement r\u00e9gional (en Europe de l’Ouest et du Nord) suite \u00e0 l’effondrement de l’AMOC et l’aggravation dans le m\u00eame temps du r\u00e9chauffement dans les zones tropicales (et partout ailleurs), bouleverse de fond en comble l’anticipation des cons\u00e9quences du d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique, ce qu’on peut appeler la \u00ab\u00a0catastrophe climatique\u00a0\u00bb (le D\u00e9r\u00e8glement Climatique en tant qu’il affecte l’existence des \u00eatres humains et non-humains).<\/p>\n

Les auteurs envisagent la survenue d’une p\u00e9riode \u00ab\u00a0glaciaire\u00a0\u00bb en Europe de l’Ouest et du Nord, avec des cons\u00e9quences majeures sur l’organisation de l’existence des habitants de ces r\u00e9gions. Mais, \u00e9videmment, ce refroidissement ne se fera pas en \u00ab\u00a0deux semaines\u00a0\u00bb (sic). Autrement dit, il y aurait, toujours selon cette hypoth\u00e8se, une p\u00e9riode transitoire, qui pourrait baigner la r\u00e9gion dans un climat plus doux (au moins au niveau des temp\u00e9ratures, m\u00eame si, et l’hypoth\u00e8se est envisag\u00e9e, les temp\u00eates pourraient devenir encore plus fr\u00e9quentes et plus violentes, et les hivers tr\u00e8s froids)
\nCe qui n’emp\u00eacherait absolument pas, bien au contraire, le reste de la plan\u00e8te de continuer d’\u00eatre en proie \u00e0 des chaleurs extr\u00eames et de subir tout le lot des cons\u00e9quences du d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique qui sont d\u00e9sormais largement identifi\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

2. Ce qui me terrifie, l\u00e0, pour le dire de mani\u00e8re tr\u00e8s spontan\u00e9e, c’est que les Europ\u00e9ens de l’Ouest b\u00e9n\u00e9ficieraient en quelque sorte d’une \u00ab\u00a0accalmie\u00a0\u00bb climatique, certes, d’apr\u00e8s les auteurs, probablement assez br\u00e8ve. Et quand on sait (A) leur responsabilit\u00e9 historique et actuelle dans la crise climatique mondiale, et (B) le sens de la solidarit\u00e9 tr\u00e8s limit\u00e9, voire totalement nul, dont l’Europe fait preuve vis-\u00e0-vis des pays du sud les plus affect\u00e9s par les effets du d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique, alors il faut s’attendre \u00e0 ce que cette \u00e9ventuelle \u00ab\u00a0accalmie\u00a0\u00bb ne contribue gu\u00e8re (excusez l’euph\u00e9misme) \u00e0 les inciter \u00e0 s’inqui\u00e9ter demain du sort de leurs anciennes colonies, ni non plus ne les incite \u00e0 r\u00e9duire leur impact sur le d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique. On ne voit pas le commencement d’un sentiment de solidarit\u00e9 internationale aujourd’hui, alors que l’impact du DC se fait sentir en Europe. On ne voit pas pourquoi il en irait autrement demain, surtout si, pendant un laps de temps, les populations d’une partie de l’Europe b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaient d’une certaine douceur, c’est-\u00e0-dire, d’un \u00ab\u00a0avantage climatique\u00a0\u00bb sur les autres nations du globe.<\/p>\n

Bon, il faudra que je creuse la question \u00e0 t\u00eate repos\u00e9e. Mais c’est assez bouleversant intellectuellement de prendre au s\u00e9rieux cette \u00e9tude. Disons qu’un tel \u00e9v\u00e8nement rebattrait les cartes, et, \u00e0 mon avis, aurait des cons\u00e9quences encore plus d\u00e9sastreuses sur l’\u00e9tat politique global du monde, dans une perspective de justice globale (si tant est qu’on puisse faire pire qu’aujourd’hui – de fait, on peut toujours faire pire, on y va tout droit m\u00eame)<\/p>\n

3. Autre cons\u00e9quence bien pourrie et \u00e0 vrai dire insupportable : un refroidissement r\u00e9gional ne peut qu’alimenter la vanne \u00e0 conneries des climato-sceptiques. (et comme je le disais, la violence et le cynisme n\u00e9ocolonial qui ne sont jamais loin dans l’esprit des climato-sceptiques)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La publication concernant l’effondrement possible de l’AMOC \u00ab\u00a0entre 2025 et 2095, avec une estimation centrale de 2057\u00a0\u00bb \u00ab\u00a0si une r\u00e9duction drastique et rapide des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre n\u2019advient pas\u00a0\u00bb (et elle n’adviendra pas, donc..) secoue \u00e9videmment la communaut\u00e9 des climatologues. Pour ceux qui ont le niveau en sciences physiques et statistiques…<\/p>\n Read More<\/span> AMOC<\/span><\/a>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4620,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"Layout":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[64],"tags":[],"class_list":["entry","author-danah","post-4619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-catastrophe-climatique"],"yoast_head":"\nAMOC - Outside Dana Hilliot<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/outsiderland.com\/danahilliot\/amoc\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AMOC - Outside Dana Hilliot\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La publication concernant l’effondrement possible de l’AMOC \u00ab\u00a0entre 2025 et 2095, avec une estimation centrale de 2057\u00a0\u00bb \u00ab\u00a0si une r\u00e9duction drastique et rapide des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre n\u2019advient pas\u00a0\u00bb (et elle n’adviendra pas, donc..) secoue \u00e9videmment la communaut\u00e9 des climatologues. 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